What's subsequent for the Iranian authorities following the loss of life of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash?

The loss of life of Iran's president is unlikely to result in any speedy adjustments in Iran's system of presidency or its general insurance policies. that are determined by the supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

However Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash on Sunday, was seen because the front-runner to succeed Khamenei, 85, and his loss of life makes it extra seemingly that he’ll ultimately the place falls to Khamenei's son.

A hereditary succession would pose a possible disaster of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was created as a substitute for the monarchy however which many Iranians already think about a corrupt and dictatorial regime.

Right here's a have a look at what's coming subsequent.

Iran holds common elections to elect the president and parliament by common suffrage.

However the supreme chief has the ultimate say on all vital insurance policies, He acts as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and controls the highly effective Revolutionary Guard.

He additionally appoints half of the 12-member Guardianship Councila clerical physique that evaluates candidates for president, parliament and the Meeting of Specialists, an elected physique of jurists tasked with electing the supreme chief.

In idea, the clergy oversee the republic to make sure compliance with Islamic regulation. In follow, the supreme chief rigorously manages the governing system to stability competing pursuits, promote his priorities, and be certain that nobody challenges the Islamic Republic or his position on the helm.

Raisi, a hardliner seen as a protégé of Khamenei, was elected president in 2021 after the Guard Council blocked every other well-liked candidate from working towards him and turnout was the bottom within the Islamic Republic's historical past. He succeeded Hassan Rouhani, a comparatively average manwho was president for the previous eight years and defeated Raisin in 2017.

After Raisi's loss of life, in accordance with Iran's structure, the comparatively unknown vice chairman Mohammad Mojber grew to become interim president and elections should be held inside 50 days. This vote is prone to be rigorously managed to supply a president who maintains the established order.

Which means that Iran will proceed to impose some measure of Islamic rule and suppress dissent, enrich uranium, help armed teams all through the Center East, and consider the West with deep suspicion.

Presidents come and go, some extra average than others, however every operates underneath the construction of the ruling system.

If any main change happens in Iran, it’s prone to happen after Khamenei's loss of life. when a brand new supreme chief is elected for the second time because the Islamic Revolution 1979. Khamenei succeeded the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.

The subsequent supreme chief will probably be chosen by the 88-seat Meeting of Specialists, who’re elected each eight years from candidates evaluated by the Guard Council. In the latest election, in March, Rouhani was barred from working whereas Raisi received a seat.

Any dialogue of succession, or associated machinations, takes place away from the general public eye, making it troublesome to know who could be within the working. However the two individuals analysts see as almost certainly to succeed Khamenei are Raisi and the supreme chief's personal son. Mojtaba, 55 years outdated, a Shiite cleric who has by no means held authorities workplace.

The leaders of the Islamic Republic current their system as superior not solely to the democracies of the West, however to the navy dictatorships and monarchies that dominate your complete Center East.

Switch of energy from the supreme chief to his son can provoke angernot solely amongst Iranians who already criticize the clerical authorities, but in addition amongst supporters of the system who might even see it as anti-Islamic.

Western sanctions associated to the nuclear program have destroyed Iran's financial system. And the applying of Islamic rule, which grew to become harsher underneath Raisi, has additional alienated ladies and younger individuals.

The Islamic Republic has confronted a number of waves of well-liked protests lately, most just lately following the loss of life in 2022 of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested on suspicion of not masking her hair in public with a hijab. Greater than 500 individuals died and greater than 22,000 had been arrested in a violent crackdown.

Rais's loss of life might complicate the transition to a brand new supreme chief and trigger extra unrest.