Mexico is going through a second Donald Trump presidency, and few international locations can match the expertise of being a goal of Trump's rhetoric: he has threatened to take action shut the borderimpose Responsibility and even ship U.S. forces to battle Mexican drug cartels if the nation doesn't do extra to stem the circulate of migrants and medicines.
To not point out what Mass deportations of migrants People who find themselves in the USA illegally might be coping with remittances – the cash migrants ship house – which has change into one of many instances Important sources of earnings in Mexico.
However as a lot as this second spherical resembles the primary – when Mexico appeased Trump discreetly give in to their calls for On the subject of immigration, circumstances have modified, and never essentially for the higher. As we speak Mexico has Claudia Sheinbaum a considerably strict left-wing ideologue as president, and Trump will not be recognized for dealing with such relationships properly.
In 2019, the then president of Mexico was Andrés Manuel López Obrador a charismatic, outspoken and people-oriented chief who appeared to know Trump as a result of they each had one Transactional view of politics: For those who give me what I need, I'll offer you what you need. Each maintained a cordial relationship.
Sheinbaum attends a press convention on the Nationwide Palace in Mexico Metropolis, Mexico. Picture: EFEHowever whereas López Obrador caught to the give-and-take coverage of the previous ruling get together, the Institutional Revolutionary Celebration (PRI), usually corruptSheinbaum grew up in a household of left-wing activists and He gained political expertise in radical college pupil actions.
“Claudia is extra ideological than López Obrador, so therein lies the issue I see that she could also be reacting to Trump's insurance policies. — whether or not it’s organized crime or immigration or tariffs — with a way more nationalistic and chauvinistic view of the connection,” stated Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.
Sheinbaum made a degree of being among the many first world leaders to name Trump on Thursday to congratulate him after the election, however in the course of the name Trump did two issues That might say so much about how issues can be.
First, Sheinbaum stated, Trump He rapidly introduced up the subject of the border to remind him that there have been issues there. He then requested Sheinbaum to ship his greetings to López Obrador, with whom Trump stated he had “an excellent relationship.” That might counsel Trump believes López Obrador – the brand new president's political mentor – remains to be in cost, a view shared by some analysts.
Sarukhan stated he believes the truth that Sheinbaum is a lady and from Mexico “can be an important problem, a difficulty that can come up as the 2 transfer ahead of their relationship.”
Claudia Sheinbaum, throughout a piece journey within the state of Zacatecas (Mexico). Picture: EFENot every little thing has modified for the more severe: Cross-border commerce has exceeded $800 billion yearly and American firms depend on Mexican factories greater than ever.
However the United States-Mexico-Canada Commerce Settlement (USMCA).is nearing overview, and Mexico has made authorized modifications that Trump might use to demand a renegotiation of components of the treaty.
Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico is not going to again down even whether it is cornered, saying: “In fact, we’ll deal with any concern that arises by means of dialogue as a collaborative course of, and if not, we’ll.” let's stand“We’re able to do it with nice unity.”
Standing didn't work notably properly earlier than. In 2018, Marcelo Ebrard was the highest-ranking Mexican diplomat; Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated Ebrard had essentially bowed to US calls for to maintain asylum seekers in Mexico and take again migrants, even when they weren’t Mexican.
Ebrard solely requested that the settlement not be made public in order to not embarrass López Obrador, Pompeo wrote. (Ebrard later stated he prevented signing a a lot worse “protected third nation” settlement.)
As we speak, Ebrard is Mexico's financial system minister and would lead the Mexican delegation to the scheduled 2026 overview of the United States-Mexico-Canada free commerce settlement, which Trump welcomed with pleasure (“I've by no means seen anybody surrender like that.” (Trump as soon as stated about Ebrard).
Ebrard performed down any dangers this time, saying financial ties between the 2 international locations would stop Trump from closing borders or imposing tariffs.
“I’m optimistic. Not like different international locations, we’re the USA' largest buying and selling accomplice. In the event that they impose a tariff, it is going to impression the USstated Ebrard. “I'm not saying it will likely be simple, as a result of that's not the case in any respect, however the relationship with President Trump can be good as a result of what unites us? These numbers, this gigantic financial system.”
However some former diplomats say claims that Mexico can keep away from friction with the Trump administration are exaggerated and that 2025 is not going to essentially be like 2019.
Martha Bárcena, Mexico's ambassador to the USA from 2018 to 2021, stated she doesn’t consider Trump will return on his marketing campaign guarantees to deport migrants who’re within the nation illegally. He identified that Mexican officers consider Trump might average his “marketing campaign guarantees about Mexican migrants.” are vital for the American financial system“are too optimistic.
“Mexico is this by means of the lens of financial logic. The logic the Trump marketing campaign makes use of concerning immigration It’s a logic of nationwide safety and questions of cultural identificationBarcena stated.
A few of Trump's largest coverage issues — the restoration of U.S. jobs and the rising rivalry with China — additionally have an effect on Mexico.
American and international car producers They’ve put in dozens of methods in Mexico, and a few within the U.S. concern that Chinese language firms might do the identical to benefit from present commerce guidelines and export Chinese language automobiles or auto components to the USA.
It doesn't assist that Sheinbaum pushed López Obrador's insurance policies aimed toward eliminating unbiased regulatory and oversight companies and legal guidelines that the U.S. authorities says might restrict the independence of the judiciary, two issues contained within the USMCA -Commerce agreements are required.
“In the event that they proceed with the elimination of unbiased regulators and autonomous our bodies, that may be a brand new violation of the USMCA,” Sarukhan stated. “After which it will get worse. The massive half will after all be China and the Chinese language presence in Mexico.”
This might immediate Trump to name for the renegotiation of all auto business offers underneath the commerce pact.
Concerning efforts to collectively fight unlawful drug trafficking – this cooperation fell to historic lows in 2019 and 2020 -, there have been some modest encouraging indicators. Final week, Mexico introduced the seizure of greater than 300,000 fentanyl drugs in Tijuana, after months of confiscating a complete of simply 50 grams per week.
Sheinbaum, who assumed the presidency on October 1, additionally seems to be quietly abandoning López Obrador's technique of not confronting the drug cartels. However neither she nor her predecessor and political mentor might settle for a Trump plan to ship U.S. forces to function independently on Mexican soil.
It stays to be seen how far Trump would possibly go; To make his threats come true, he usually solely makes symbolic gestures. However Sarukhan stated: “I believe he’ll increase his voice and will carry a big stick“.
Translation: Elisa Carnelli