The story of the Starmer authorities shall be formed by the stress between the change it promised the opposition and the dearth of cash obtainable to ship it.
We are able to now have a look at the primary two chapters on this story – public sector pay and advantages.
Indications this weekend are that the chancellor will comply with a reported above-inflation pay rise for a lot of public sector employees.
Failure to take action would threat a brand new wave of strikes – a foul image for the primary months of a Labor administration.
However it means an instantaneous multi-billion pound invoice for Rachel Reeves.
Its “iron-clad” fiscal guidelines imply it could possibly't come from borrowing, and the elevated income from future financial progress received't arrive in time for this spherical of funds.
That leaves her with two levers to tug – a major reduce in spending and a pointy enhance in taxes.
We might get a sign of the method within the subsequent 10 days when the chancellor involves the Commons to set out the broader state of the general public funds and the way pay offers match into it.
On advantages – and notably the two-child restrict – the federal government has motive to assume it’s on a extra secure run.
Sir Keir Starmer is insulated from a lot political injury by his giant majority and will really feel much less inclined to vary course given polls counsel the coverage is extra in style with the general public than with MPs.
However these fights are only a style of what it’s important to eat.
This autumn will deliver a spending overview that can totally expose the grey hole between what departments want and what’s obtainable.
The flashpoints that can emerge are daunting: defence, well being, social care, councils, pensions – the listing goes on.
All through the election marketing campaign, each events had been accused of merely not being clear about how little cash was being distributed in Whitehall to fund public providers.
Economists known as it a conspiracy of silence.
Now in energy, maintaining schtum is solely not an choice for Labour.