The Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three key swing states for November's presidential election, new polls from New York Times and Siena College, the last sign of a drastic change on the Democratic ticket after Joe Biden left the presidential race.
Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50% to 46% among likely voters in each state. The polls were conducted from August 5 to 9.
The surveys, among the first of high quality in those districts since the year Biden's withdrawalcome after almost a year of polls showing a tie or a slight lead for the mogul over the Democratic president.
While the reshuffled race is still in its first volatile weeks, Democrats are now in a significantly stronger position in these three battleground states that have been key to the party's wins (or losses).
Even so, results show weakness for Harris. Voters favor Trump on his handling of the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, at a campaign event. Photo: REUTERS Reasons for a changing scenario
Much of the new democratic strength is due to improving voter perceptions of Harris. His favorability rating has increased by 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania in the last month alone. Voters also see the current vice president as smarter and better suited to govern than Trump.
Les Lanser, a retiree from Holland, Michigan, who generally votes Republican, said he was considering endorsing Harris in November. Although he does not agree with some democratic policies, he noted that he could not stand the “disrespectful” and “unacceptable” attitude of the former Republican president. Lanser, 89, said he regrets supporting Trump in 2016.
Surveys provide an early view of a race that turned into just over two weeks. the vortex of political change captured the nation's attention and reinvigorated some voters approaching the Biden-Trump rematch with a deep sense of dread.
It's unclear to what extent Harris' rise in the polls is due to heightened excitement about her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether the momentum will last. Candidates traditionally gain several percentage points in the days and weeks after their candidacy is announced. Harris announced the election of Minnesota governor Tim Walzon Tuesday, as voters responded to this poll
Donald Trump launched strong attacks against his rival, Kamala Harris, Photo: REUTERS Still, there's little doubt that replacing Biden on the ticket has boosted Democrats' enthusiasm for the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has increased since Harris entered the race, rising 27 percentage points in the three key states since May.
Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a change from three months ago when the question was last asked.
John Jordan, a Democratic voter from Croydon, Pennsylvania, praised Biden's achievements as president and said he would have voted for him again in November. But her friends and family are much more “empowered” to support Harris, she said.
“I think she's the best person to move this country forward,” said Jordan, 60, who works as a school administrator. “I'm going to go one step further and say that I'm very proud to be a part of this historic moment and I hope that, yes, she becomes the first African-Asian woman to be in the White House. I think this is a very exciting moment.”
On the three battlefields, Harris is in a stronger position than Biden in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree.
The government's number two is doing better with key sectors of the Democratic Party coalition that had begun to erode under the Biden administration, particularly black and young voters. But he also appears to be holding on to the elders, who were some of the president's staunchest supporters.
The share of people who said they trusted Harris to handle economic problems was higher than the share Biden received in May, though it's still nine points behind Trump on an issue in which the Republican candidate has had the advantage for a long time. But he has a 24 percentage point lead when it comes to who voters trust to run the show. abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats: In May, Biden had a 13-point lead on abortion.
of Trump attacks Harris since “unintelligent” and “incompetent” have not resonated with the majority of voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Harris as smart, more than say the same about Trump. Among the white population without a college degree, a demographic that tends to favor Republicans, Harris is said to be “smart.”
Kamala Harris Weaknesses
But the polls also show clearly weaknesses for the new Democratic presidential candidate. 42 percent of voters said Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Biden last October. Trump and his campaign They have tried to define Harris as a left-wing extremist looking for those extreme supports. In recent days, the candidate has repudiated some of her previous positions on issues such as border surveillance and border crossings, as well as her support for a single-payer health care system.
Jonathan Ball, a flooring installer from Jackson, Michigan, said he believed Trump would do more to help American workers than Harris. “I think it is more liberal. I don't think he's totally pro-middle class,” said Ball, 46, who plans to endorse Trump for a third time this year. “I see it as one-sided. You know, in favor of the rich.”
Beyond opinions on Trump, polls capture mixed feelings about the Republican candidate, JD Vance. He had a rocky debut on the campaign trail after a series of past comments drew new scrutiny, including a 2021 claim that the United States was being run by “childless cat women” like Harris.
In all three states, independent voters view Vance broadly unfavorably: About a third said they were dissatisfied, and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his election. Surprisingly, he receives tepid support from a significant number of Republican voters.
In comparison, Walz received higher approval ratings within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was conducted entirely after the governor was announced as Harris' running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about the vice presidential nominee.
Barbara Kampa, a two-time Trump voter from Greendale, Wisconsin, said she was surprised when she first heard Vance speak at the campaign trial.
“I thought, oh, shit. I don't know how to say it nicely, but shit,” said Kampa, 64, who is retired and plans to vote for Trump again. “You can't go out on the street like it's the Wild West and start shooting. “It discourages people.”
New surveys also included crucial Senate races in the three key states. Democrats have a slight edge among likely voters in Michigan and larger leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Just a few months ago, Democratic Senate candidates were well ahead of Biden, a sign of the president's weakness. Harris, by comparison, is neck-and-neck with her party's Senate candidates in all three states.