BERLIN – The sudden loss of life of the president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisiopens a brand new chapter of instability because the more and more unpopular Islamic Republic begins to decide on its subsequent supreme chief.
Raisi, 63, had been thought-about the front-runner, significantly favored by the highly effective Revolutionary Guard.
Even earlier than the helicopter crash that killed Raisin, the regime was consumed by inside political and non secular struggles whereas the supreme chief, the ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85 years previous, the longest-lived head of state within the Center East, has unhealthy well being
However given fears of instability at a time when the Islamic Republic faces inside protests, a weak financial system, endemic corruption and tensions with Israel, analysts anticipate little change in Iran's home and overseas insurance policies.
Khamenei has determined the path of the nation and each new president It gained't hassle him an excessive amount of.
The system “is already on a trajectory to make sure that the successor to the supreme chief is absolutely in keeping with his imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the system,” he mentioned. Ali Vaez, Director of Iran i Worldwide Disaster Group.
He described “a fairly robust imaginative and prescient” by which key areas of overseas coverage, reminiscent of assist for regional militias and the event of the parts for a nuclear weapon, they won’t change.
Folks collect to mourn the loss of life of Iran's late president Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, Iran, Could 20, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia Information Company) by way of REUTERSWhoever is chosen as the subsequent president, Váez mentioned, “must be somebody who will match him that visiona determine serve”.
Advanced agenda
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran professional on the European Council on International Relations, additionally sees continuity on key overseas coverage points, together with regional affairs and the nuclear program.
“These information have been underneath the management of Iran's supreme chief and the IRGC,” he mentioned, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, “and Raisi had little affect throughout his tenure as president.”
“Raisi was definitely helpful to some factions of the IRGC,” Geranmayeh mentioned.
In contrast to its predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, Raisi, a extra conservative loyalist, “didn’t problem the IRGC on both home or overseas coverage points,” he mentioned.
However criticism of Raisi's efficiency as president had already raised questions on whether or not he was one of the best candidate to succeed Khamenei, he mentioned.
Rais's important rival was thought-about to be Khamenei's sonMojtaba, 55 years previous, whose candidacy has been broken by the aura ea monarchical succession.
Raisi's loss of life might give Mojtaba Khamenei a neater path to succeeding his father.
However the interior workings of Iran's home and non secular politics are intentionally mysterious, and the choice will in the end be made by a council of the clergy high-ranking physique often known as the Meeting of Consultants.
Though Mojtaba Khamenei is taken into account the favourite of the clergy, they could nonetheless determine to decide on one in all them or have extra collective management.
A banner with the picture of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Monday in Tehran. He was thought-about a number one candidate to grow to be the nation's subsequent supreme chief. Photograph Majid Asgaripour/Wana Information Company, by way of ReutersHis father, the supreme chief, had labored arduous “to cut back unpredictability inside the system by getting ready President Raisi to probably be his successor and now all these plans are out the window and again to the drafting board,” Váez mentioned.
CHALLENGE
Externally, the challenges are additionally nice.
Iran and Israel attacked one another instantly in April, though Israel is already preventing Iran's army proxies:
Hamas within the Gaza Strip and, much less clearly, Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran additionally sponsors Houthis in Yemenwhich attacked ships within the Pink Sea.
Iran has labored to keep away from a serious struggle between Hezbollah and Israel, and a direct battle with Israel can also be one thing the Islamic Republic can’t be allowed.
It has held intermittent talks with the USA on de-escalation of the regional battle and the way forward for its nuclear program.
Rais's loss of life additionally threatens to complicate these talks.
“Whereas a Raisi loss in Washington, D.C., instability in Iran would come at a foul time,” mentioned Trita Parsi, an Iran professional on the Quincy Institute for the Artwork of Accountable Authorities, which might make it “much more troublesome to forestall an escalation.”
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