Revised Estimates Reveal Severe Impact of Colonisation on Indigenous Australians
By Editor • September 15, 2026 • 2 min read
New research has unveiled a staggering revision of Australia's Indigenous population estimates, indicating that the pre-colonial numbers were vastly underestimated. The findings suggest that the Indigenous population before European arrival was at least 2.22 million, significantly higher than previous estimates ranging from 250,000 to 1 million.
According to the study published on Tuesday, around 2.06 million Indigenous Australians are believed to have perished due to diseases, violence, and the consequences of colonial displacement. This devastating decline resulted in only seven per cent of the original population surviving just over 70 years after the First Fleet landed in 1788.
Unveiling Historical Biases
Researchers utilized advanced computer modeling alongside ethnographic, archaeological, and genetic data to arrive at these new estimates. Professor Larissa Behrendt of the University of Technology Sydney emphasized the importance of these findings, calling for a reevaluation of the historical narrative surrounding colonisation's impact.
Co-author Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University highlighted that previous studies had failed to adequately capture the extent of lethal diseases and violence faced by Indigenous peoples. He pointed out that smallpox alone could have claimed as many as 220,000 lives along the eastern coast within the first decade of colonisation.
Future Population Growth
While the Indigenous population has seen growth since the 1950s, current census data indicates that in 2021, it reached approximately 37 per cent of the median pre-colonial size. If growth trends continue, it’s estimated that it will take until 2047 for the population to match those pre-colonial figures.
In their paper, the researchers underscored the significance of accurately estimating the size of Australia's Indigenous population as a means to foster truth-telling and reconciliation. Professor Bradshaw poignantly remarked on the catastrophic loss, stating, "Removing 93 per cent of the (Indigenous) population in 70 years can’t be interpreted in any other way but disastrous." Yet, he also celebrated the resilience of Indigenous cultures that have endured despite the atrocities faced.
Source: www.abc.net.au
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