Ukrainian Intelligence Predicts Russian Military Decline by 2028 Amid Ongoing Attacks
By Editor • September 12, 2026 • 2 min read
Ukrainian intelligence officials have issued a stark warning regarding the future of the Russian military, claiming that by 2028, Moscow could face a critical shortage of troops and resources, with morale already significantly deteriorating. Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated that Russia's current recruitment efforts and military capabilities will only sustain them for the next couple of years.
According to Ivashchenko, Russia is enlisting between 1,000 to 1,200 recruits daily. However, the staggering casualty rates—1,410 reported killed one day and 1,511 the next—suggest that this strategy may be unsustainable. He noted that approximately 60 percent of those casualties are fatalities, which raises concerns about the long-term viability of Russia's military efforts.
Recent Attacks and Casualties
The conflict continues to escalate with devastating attacks from both sides. Recently, a Russian drone strike on a shopping mall in Pavlohrad resulted in at least five deaths and left 67 individuals injured, including several teenagers. This attack occurred during the day when many people were present, highlighting the indiscriminate nature of the violence.
In response, Ukraine has targeted key Russian infrastructure, including e-commerce hubs and oil facilities. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported successful strikes on facilities in the Saratov and Volgograd regions, as part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russia's war machinery. Ukrainian forces also struck two petrol stations in Kyiv, leading to additional casualties, which prompted sharp criticism from officials who described such actions as terrorizing civilians.
International Support and Strategic Developments
As the conflict intensifies, support for Ukraine from international allies remains robust. The European Commission has approved a significant financial disbursement of €6.1 billion to bolster Ukraine's military capabilities, which will be crucial for acquiring advanced weaponry such as Patriot air defense missiles. Moreover, discussions continue regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, with Portugal expressing strong support for this initiative.
As the military landscape evolves, both Ukraine and Russia are increasingly targeting logistics and economic infrastructure to weaken each other’s war efforts, indicating that the conflict is far from resolution.
Source: www.independent.co.uk
