Rodrigo Duterte’s sudden arrest for his battle on medication marketing campaign, which resulted within the killing of greater than 30,000 males, girls, and kids, comes at a second of political uncertainty within the Philippines. This dramatic improvement has been celebrated by pro-democracy activists and victims’ households, who’ve lengthy demanded accountability. However this arrest additionally places the 2 most outstanding political dynasties within the Philippines on a collision course with severe and imminent implications for home politics.
The Philippines has an abysmal monitor file of holding elected officers accountable, and highly effective politicians routinely get away with corruption and even homicide. Through the years, successive presidents have systematically undermined and, within the case of Duterte, threatened establishments that may function a test on their energy. Anticipating these accountability points following him into post-presidency, [RM1] Duterte Proactive allied allies on key positions within the courts and constitutional commissions. In the midst of his six -year time period particularly, Dutert ordered the Philippines to withdraw from the Worldwide Legal Court docket (ICC).
Prospects for accountability turned dimmer when Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, was elected as vice chairman in 2022 alongside President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr., whose father dominated the nation for 20 years beneath a dictatorship and was accused of quite a few human rights abuses. The alliance between the nation’s strongest households resulted in a landslide victory. However cracks within the relationship began appearing virtually instantly. In December 2024, formal impeachment complaints had been introduced towards Sara Duterte; the costs included corruption, a plot to assassinate the president, and potential involvement in extrajudicial killings in her father’s battle on medication whereas she was mayor of Davao Metropolis.
On this context of previous impunity, why did the arrest of Duterte occur now? A part of it’s pushed by the extreme, ongoing rivalry between the 2 households. Marcos Jr. tried to distance himself from Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest. As quickly because the airplane carrying the previous president took off for The Hague, he gave a press convention explaining that the Philippines had no alternative however to cooperate with INTERPOL, downplaying the truth that the warrant got here from the ICC. Since coming to energy in 2022, Marcos Jr. has repeatedly stated that the ICC has no jurisdiction within the Philippines and won’t cooperate with the ICC. Because the battle between the 2 strongest political dynasties ratcheted up and the alliance unraveled, it turned clear that the ICC was the ace up the sleeve of Marcos Jr. and his allies when the president revised his stance on the problem in January. It was at all times a query of when that ace can be used. This ace card was performed simply two months earlier than the midterm elections, presumably to discredit the Duterte household and dampen their electoral fortunes. However this tactical gambit could or could not repay for Marcos Jr. and his political allies.
One motive why Duterte’s arrest could backfire is that the broader public demand for accountability is weak, and grassroots assist for Duterte stays excessive. This assist materialized outdoors of the ICC headquarters in The Hague, the place Filipino supporters of Duterte had been carrying Philippine flags and indicators saying, “We stand with FPRRD [which stands for former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte]. ““ When the Van handed the ICC Exhausting Hospital with the previous President, the group cheered to the distressed former president. Kababayan (Landsmann) to foreigners and a overseas court docket. His followers sing in numerous protests for Duterte: “Deliver him house”. On-line is the dominant faux tales that Duterte was illegally arrested and kidnapped.
Response to the arrest within the Philippines is very polarized. For the households and buddies of the victims, who’ve lengthy strived for justice, the arrest introduced some reduction. Outstanding activists, together with Nobel Prize winner Maria Ressa, celebrated the transfer as a historic second in an “age of impunity.” However supporters of Rodrigo Duterte have come out to protest and maintain prayer rallies in numerous elements of Metro Manila, Mindanao and the Visayas. These mobilizations and outcry of assist for Duterte are persistent together with his public reputation even throughout his murderous battle on medication marketing campaign. It’s value recalling that regardless of his murderous monitor file, Rodrigo Duterte ended his presidency with a nationwide approval ranking of 80 p.c. Now, his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, stays well-liked with satisfaction rankings which can be shut, or at occasions barely higher, than Marcos Jr.’s approval rankings. Duterte’s youngest daughter, Veronica Duterte, is a social media influencer. She options prominently in movies and footage taken of her father when Duterte was arrested by the ICC. The movies are seen by means of the lens of a household defending an ailing and aged father. An idealization and victimization that resonates with Filipinos, maybe extra so than the worldwide accountability mechanisms and procedures. Her Instagram followers doubled from one to just about two million inside a day of her father’s arrest.
Duterte’s arrest and extradition to The Hague may draw new supporters for Marcos Jr. from progressive circles, nevertheless it may additionally consolidate assist for the Dutertes and the political households who assist them. For sure, Marcos Jr.’s camp accounted for the political blowback that comes with cooperating with INTERPOL and the ICC. It’s too quickly to say to what extent Marcos Jr. may profit from this political technique. It stays to be seen if there shall be extra coordinated and well-attended mobilization efforts, each offline and on-line, within the coming days resulting in the pre-trial of Duterte. Marcos Jr. and his allies can’t underestimate how victimization, forgetting, and memorializing are formed within the digital area. The Marcos household, in any case, benefited from the same dynamic and managed to return to the very best public workplace after thirty-six years in exile. Some will argue that the pro-Duterte voices in social media are paid trolls or come from organized troll farms. For the reason that arrest of Duterte, faux information has proliferated on-line and the social media account of ICC pre-trial choose Iulia Motoc has been develop into a goal of pro-Duterte supporters. The “architects of disinformation” within the Philippines, who influenced the outcomes of the 2016 and 2022 nationwide elections, are a drive that may affect the voters within the coming elections and ought to be taken severely.
The Marcos household is aware of what it means to rise from the ashes. The Marcos’ return to politics exhibits that Filipino voters can overlook human rights abuses; and that loyal supporters of highly effective dynasties by no means go away. They will deliver again even probably the most discredited politicians to energy. The Marcos household can’t low cost the truth that this formulation can work for an additional political household. This time, their rivals, the Dutertes.
There isn’t a doubt that Duterte’s arrest has introduced a way of optimism for victims of his extrajudicial killings that they are going to lastly get justice at The Hauge. However inside the Philippines, justice for previous atrocities stays elusive, particularly when the accused maintain highly effective positions and the establishments of accountability stay weak.