CGS Worldwide Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) predicts that the Thailand (SET index) inventory alternate is uncovered to worldwide political elements, specifically the tense relationships between the USA and China, and information in reference to the potential step of President Donald Trump to take away the chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED). CGSI tasks the set index to fluctuate between 1,105 and 1,150 factors.
Though the Thai inventory market has been underneath common in comparison with the regional markets for the reason that starting of the 12 months and has not but clearly recovered, CGSI notes that there’s nonetheless a brief to medium -term stress to be monitored intently.
In Germany, essential developments that have an effect on the general market contains the indefinite postponement of the collective bargaining with america, which is initially anticipated on April 23, 2025 and is ready for a solution from the USA and the US commerce consultant (USTR). (2) Intensified tensions between america and China, specifically warnings from the international locations, are planning commerce talks with america, which impacts market belief. and (three) Inner political conflicts between the events of Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai.
Lately, the Bhumjaithai get together introduced that it could not assist the legislation proposed by the Pheu Thai get together on the leisure advanced, whereby it leads the federal government’s have to precedence on pressing subjects such because the workplace constructing of the auditor basic of the auditor and the collapse of local weather change, which results in a excessive degree of uncertainty of state politics.
With regard to the efficiency of the banking sector that covers CGSI, together with SCB, KBank, KTB, BBL, TTB, TISCO, KKP and Credit score, the overall web revenue for the primary quarter/2025 was 59.three billion baht, a rise of 5.7% in comparison with the earlier 12 months and a rise of 11.three% in comparison with the earlier 12 months. Most registered income exceeded company and market expectations, excluding KKP, Credit score and TTB.
Nevertheless, the general progress of the mortgage slowed down by 1.2% and zero.6% in comparison with the earlier 12 months in comparison with the earlier 12 months, whereas NIM decreased by 22 BPS and 19 BPS in comparison with the final quarter in comparison with the earlier 12 months. This corresponds to the downward coverage curiosity from This fall/67 to Q1/25. The efficiency of the subsequent quarter is anticipated to be uncovered to falling rates of interest, stricter mortgage requirements and elevated credit score prices from the worldwide commerce struggle dangers.
The at present highlighted shares really helpful BDMS, which BH is more likely to exceed constantly and profit from a rise in worldwide vacationers, whereby a really helpful revenue is offered at 25.zero baht and cease loss at 22.eight baht. Within the meantime, CPALL is one other excellent shares that’s anticipated to report sturdy regular features of 6.9 billion baht with a rise of 14.5% in comparison with the earlier 12 months. Anticipate that gross sales progress in the identical enterprise will enhance by three% in comparison with the earlier 12 months, whereby a really helpful revenue is taken at 51.50 baht and cease loss at 49.00 baht.