The case of the best chief of Iran, Ali Khamenei ,, It will not assure the implementation of a democratic regime within the nation, The place the opposition may be very shared, analysts declare.
Israel began a wave of the bomb assault towards nuclear and ballistic services in Iran on June 13, but additionally towards infrastructure corresponding to public radio (Irib) L.Or that leaves little doubt that the aim is a change of regime.
US President Donald Trump says he is aware of the place Khamenei is hiding, however the eventuality of a fall of Ayatollah. The director will go from the 1979 Islamic Revolution, He lifts many strangers.
In Europe, many governments worry that the case of the Iranian regime has such destructive penalties Like that of Iraq invasion, which was led by america in 2003 Or NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011.
The case of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq and Muammar Khadafi in Libya opened a time of Years of chaos and violence in each nations.
“The largest mistake would now be in making use of for a change of regime in Iran by navy assets as a result of That may result in chaos“French President Emmanuel Macron stated on Tuesday on the G7 summit in Canada.
“Does anybody suppose that what was performed in Iraq 2003 (…) or Libya was a good suggestion a decade in the past?” insured.
Many analysts imagine that the autumn of Khamenei and the federal government of the Islamic Republic would create a vacuum that would fill the powerful line supportersJust like the guards of the Iranian Revolution or the military.
“The assaults of Israel appear to focus extra on the change of regime than on the non -spreading of nuclear weapons, Nicole Grajewski from the middle primarily based in Washington reveals.
“After all, Israel assaults ballistic rockets and associated navy services, however In addition they assault the leaders and regime symbols“Like public tv, he stated AFP.
“If the regime fell Hope could be a liberal and democratic authorities (…) Nevertheless, there’s a nice likelihood that different highly effective models such because the guards of the revolution will seem as a alternative, ”he added.
Paz Pahlavi, son of Mohamad Reza Pahlavi, the fallen, noticed from Persia, is among the most necessary opposition figures and ensures that the Islamic Republic It’s “on the sting of the collapse” And he states that Khamenei is hidden as a “frightened rat”.
Pahlavi, who lives in america, desires to revive the great relationship between his late father and Israel, however It has no majority help inside Iran or underneath exile.
The nationalism of their supporters and their connections to Israel are controversial, identical to their refusal to sentence Israeli air strikes towards Iran.
One other opposition group is the so -called group of the Mujahidines of the individuals of Iran (Wipo), whose information Mariam Rajavi stated within the European Parliament on Wednesday “The individuals in Iran need to overthrow this regime.”
Nevertheless, Wipo doesn’t have the help of different teams within the opposition and the Iranian You look suspicious Saddam Hussein Within the time of the Iran-Airak battle.
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Why is it so harmful?
In response to Thomas Juneau, professor on the College of Ottawa, “within the occasion of a collapse There is no such thing as a organized democratic various. “
“The one various and one of many worrying situations is a coup dysfunction of the guards of the revolution, that’s, Change from a theocracy to a navy dictatorship “,”, “, The knowledgeable factors to this.
Analysts additionally warn of the complicated ethnic composition of Iran, whereby Kurdish minorities, Arabs, Belutschi and Túrquicos coexist along with the Persian inhabitants.