Mykhailo Fedorov's Political Gamble Backfires Amid Ukrainian Protests

In a move that ignited considerable debate in Ukraine, former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov issued a video on August 18 advocating for elections to be held despite the ongoing war. This message came just a day after Yevhen Khmara was appointed as the new defense minister, following over a month of protests demanding Fedorov's reinstatement.

Fedorov's address, which marked his YouTube debut, ventured into the controversial territory of electoral politics, a topic largely considered off-limits in the war-torn nation. He argued that the ongoing conflict should not impede the democratic process, stating, "Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia… we must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to resume a fully functioning democratic process even amid a prolonged war." However, he did not clarify whether he was referring to presidential or parliamentary elections.

The response to Fedorov's video was swift, with many Ukrainians—including some of his own supporters—criticizing his call for elections during wartime. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that only 12% of Ukrainians believed elections should occur before the end of hostilities, reflecting a widespread sentiment against such a notion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also dismissed the idea of elections during the conflict, describing it as a “tsunami that would split Ukraine apart.” A source within Zelensky's office remarked on the impracticality of planning elections amid ongoing military threats, highlighting a disconnect between Fedorov's ambitions and the current realities faced by the nation.

Fedorov’s video also tackled the sensitive issue of corruption, asserting that it takes on a more severe meaning in wartime. He argued that misappropriated funds during a conflict can lead to critical shortages in military supplies and medical evacuations, thus endangering lives on the front lines. While he did not name specific individuals, his remarks coincided with visual references to notable figures like Andriy Yermak and David Arakhamia, raising eyebrows about the potential implications for the current administration.

This address is seen as a strategic attempt by Fedorov to position himself politically, particularly following failed negotiations for his return as defense minister. A source described the video as a three-pronged political manifesto aimed at unseating Zelensky, combating corruption, and fostering unity among Ukrainians. However, some observers noted that the lack of a more dynamic rallying call from Fedorov may have limited its impact.

Despite the initial surge of support that led to protests dubbed “cardboard” for the makeshift signs held by demonstrators, the momentum has waned since the video’s release. The protests began shortly after Fedorov's dismissal on July 16, with supporters voicing their concern over the appointment of Khmara, and expressing fears that reforms would stall under new leadership.

Four days after Fedorov’s video, Zelensky reiterated the reasons behind his dismissal, citing severe discord between Fedorov and the military leadership. He claimed that Fedorov declined various opportunities to work collaboratively within the administration, insisting he would only return as head of the defense ministry. A close associate of Zelensky emphasized that bringing Fedorov back would pose significant risks to the system, particularly in light of ongoing investigations by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU).

Source: meduza.io