New Roadmap Unveils Path for Solar Geoengineering Research Amid Controversy

A San Francisco-based nonprofit has unveiled a comprehensive roadmap aimed at guiding research on solar geoengineering, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which could play a role in mitigating climate change. The initiative seeks to address the uncertainties surrounding this controversial technology, which has been under scientific scrutiny for over 50 years.

Reflective, the organization behind the roadmap, emphasizes the need for coordinated research to inform decision-making on the potential deployment of solar geoengineering techniques. Co-founder Dakota Gruener stated, "Our mission is to equip the world with the data and tools required for informed decision-making about sunlight reflection fast enough to matter," highlighting the urgency of the issue.

Phased Approach to Research

The roadmap outlines a phased approach to research, estimating that a coordinated effort could take about a decade and cost approximately $370 million. In contrast, a disorganized approach could extend to 20 years and nearly $1.4 billion. The first phase involves foundational studies, including computer simulations and lab experiments, costing between $30 million and $75 million over two to three years. This initial stage aims to better understand the potential impacts on ecosystems and climate phenomena.

The subsequent phases will progressively increase the scale of experiments, with the second phase involving the release of 10 metric tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere over two seasons, potentially costing between $70 million and $150 million. The final phase envisions monitoring a full-scale implementation of solar geoengineering, should it proceed, to gather real-world data and assess any unforeseen consequences.

Controversial Outdoor Experiments

While Reflective does not advocate for immediate deployment of solar geoengineering, the roadmap supports outdoor experiments that would progressively release sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This perspective has sparked significant debate among scientists and environmentalists. An open letter signed by hundreds of academics since 2002 calls for a ban on such experiments, citing concerns over the governance and ethical implications of planet-altering technologies.

Aarti Gupta, a prominent environmental governance scholar, expressed the fundamental questions surrounding this technology: "Who would control a planet-altering technology like stratospheric aerosol injection?" Reflective aims to address these concerns with a transparent research framework that includes checkpoints to halt progress if the results indicate potential risks.

Source: www.technologyreview.com