The case of the best chief of Iran, Ali Khamenei ,, It might not assure the implementation of a democratic regime within the nation, The place the opposition may be very shared, analysts declare.
Israel began a wave of the bomb assault in opposition to nuclear and ballistic services in Iran on June 13, but in addition in opposition to infrastructure akin to public radio (Irib) L.Or that leaves little doubt that the objective is a change of regime.
US President Donald Trump says he is aware of the place Khamenei is hiding, however the eventuality of a fall of Ayatollah. The director will go from the 1979 Islamic Revolution, He lifts many strangers.
In Europe, many governments concern that the case of the Iranian regime has such damaging penalties Like that of Iraq invasion, which was led by the US in 2003 Or NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011.
The case of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq and Muammar Khadafi in Libya opened a time of Years of chaos and violence in each nations.
“The most important mistake would now be in making use of for a change of regime in Iran via navy assets as a result of That might result in chaos“French President Emmanuel Macron stated on Tuesday on the G7 summit in Canada.
“Does anybody suppose that what was carried out in Iraq 2003 (…) or Libya was a good suggestion a decade in the past?” insured.
Many analysts imagine that the autumn of Khamenei and the federal government of the Islamic Republic would create a vacuum that would fill the robust line supportersJust like the guards of the Iranian Revolution or the military.
“The assaults of Israel appear to focus extra on the change of regime than on the non -spreading of nuclear weapons, Nicole Grajewski from the middle based mostly in Washington exhibits.
“In fact, Israel assaults ballistic rockets and associated navy services, however In addition they assault the leaders and regime symbols“Like public tv, he stated AFP.
“If the regime fell Hope can be a liberal and democratic authorities (…) Nevertheless, there’s a nice chance that different highly effective items such because the guards of the revolution will seem as a substitute, ”he added.
Paz Pahlavi, son of Mohamad Reza Pahlavi, the fallen, noticed from Persia, is among the most vital opposition figures and ensures that the Islamic Republic It’s “on the sting of the collapse” And he states that Khamenei is hidden as a “frightened rat”.
Pahlavi, who lives in the US, needs to revive the great relationship between his late father and Israel, however It has no majority assist inside Iran or underneath exile.
The nationalism of their supporters and their connections to Israel are controversial, similar to their refusal to sentence Israeli air strikes in opposition to Iran.
One other opposition group is the so -called group of the Mujahidines of the folks of Iran (Wipo), whose information Mariam Rajavi stated within the European Parliament on Wednesday “The folks in Iran wish to overthrow this regime.”
Nevertheless, Wipo doesn’t have the assist of different teams within the opposition and the Iranian You look suspicious Saddam Hussein Within the time of the Iran-Airak conflict.
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Why is it so harmful?
In response to Thomas Juneau, professor on the College of Ottawa, “within the occasion of a collapse There is no such thing as a organized democratic different. “
“The one different and one of many worrying situations is a coup dysfunction of the guards of the revolution, that’s, Change from a theocracy to a navy dictatorship “,”, “, The knowledgeable factors to this.
Analysts additionally warn of the complicated ethnic composition of Iran, whereby Kurdish minorities, Arabs, Belutschi and Túrquicos coexist along with the Persian inhabitants.