Fragmentation of Support Signals Shift in South African Politics Ahead of Local Elections
By Editor • September 13, 2026 • 2 min read
As South Africa approaches its local government elections in November, recent polling indicates a troubling decline in support for the African National Congress (ANC), with voters increasingly leaning toward smaller parties rather than consolidating behind the Democratic Alliance (DA). This trend reflects a significant shift in the political landscape, suggesting a more fragmented electoral environment.
Declining Support for ANC
Polling data from Ipsos, released on September 4, reveals that the ANC's support is projected to drop to 31%, a stark contrast to its 45.6% in the 2021 elections. This decline is echoed in a separate survey by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF), which indicates a significant fragmentation of the traditional black vote. In this survey, support for the ANC stands at 36%, with the Umkhonto weSizwe party (MK) following closely at 24%, and the DA and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 13% and 12%, respectively.
Impact of Political Fragmentation
Dr. Ongama Mtimka from Nelson Mandela University warns that the ANC's waning dominance does not necessarily translate to an increase in DA support. Instead, it highlights a trend of 'dynamic fragmentation' within South African politics, where voters are diversifying their political preferences without rallying behind a single strong alternative. Predictions suggest the ANC could lose its majorities in key metros like Mangaung and Buffalo City, while the DA may also see a decrease in its control over the City of Cape Town.
Challenges Ahead for Major Parties
Both the ANC and DA face substantial hurdles as they gear up for the elections. The ANC has been embroiled in controversy over its failure to submit candidates in time for key municipalities, citing technical issues with the Electoral Commission, which the commission has disputed. Meanwhile, the DA is projected to lose its outright majority in Cape Town, with their support forecasted to drop from 58.26% to around 46%. In Buffalo City, the ANC's support has plummeted dramatically from a previous majority to a tight three-way race with the DA and EFF.
The declining interest in politics among voters, with only a third expressing strong enthusiasm for the upcoming elections, may further complicate the situation. As the political landscape shifts, the implications for service delivery and governance in these regions remain critical as the electorate grapples with ongoing challenges.
Source: www.dailymaverick.co.za
