Forecasting a Surge in Local Government Coalitions by 2026

The political landscape in South Africa is poised for a significant shift, with projections indicating a rise in local government coalitions from 88 to an estimated 110 by the time of the 2026 elections. This insight comes from political scientist Susan Booysen, who shared her analysis during The Gathering 2026 event on September 11.

Changing Dynamics of Local Governance

Booysen, a professor emeritus at Wits University and now an independent analyst, noted that the number of municipal coalition governments is set to grow from 71 to 85, while district government coalitions are expected to increase from 13 to 18. Additionally, metro coalitions could rise from five to seven. These changes reflect a broader trend of fragmentation among major political parties, particularly the ANC and DA, as they struggle to maintain control in the face of declining support.

Challenges of Coalition Governance

Despite the growing coalition presence, Booysen emphasized the instability associated with such arrangements. Smaller parties are gaining influence disproportionate to their actual voter support, often finding themselves in key positions like mayorships within larger coalitions. This has led to governance challenges, including coalition-crossing, which complicates the political landscape at the local level.

Public Sentiment and Future Projections

While public opinion remains divided on the broader concept of a Government of National Unity, there is a notable support for local coalitions, with 54% of respondents favoring collaborative efforts among parties. Booysen’s analysis suggests that voters prioritize service delivery over ideological alignment when it comes to local governance. Looking ahead, she predicts that vertical coalitions—alliances among parties with differing ideologies—are more likely to emerge than horizontal coalitions between ideologically similar groups.

Source: www.dailymaverick.co.za